Our team visited Bordeaux last week. Prior to their departure we were excited, as we have previously discussed. We saw great fruit going into the presses last year, and we have heard grand comments since. One concern was the level of alcohol could potentially be high, something that would impact the Merlot more than the Cabernet Sauvignon, but we felt the skill of the Bordelais winemakers would be able to handle this issue.
 

Having returned now, the quote to start off with is from Derek Smedley MW, our wine consultant. He says “It’s a great vintage. Not as even as 2005, but the Cabernet Sauvignon is spectacular and the top wines are simply stunning.” How does 2009 compare to previous vintages? Jean-Michel Laporte, winemaker at Ch. La Conseillante in Pomerol feels it is similar to the great 1947, while Philippe Casteja, owner of Pauillac property Ch. Batailley, felt it somewhere between 1982 and 2005. The latter is easier for us to relate to. This vintage has the richness of 1982 and the balance of 2005. The Merlot, the dominant grape on the Right Bank (Pomerol and Saint Emilion being the main appellations) tended to be high in alcohol, unless the grapes were picked early. Derek felt that Saint Emilion was the weakest area, but still the top wines were excellent. Caution does need to be applied to the many Grand Crus which were mixed. But the Cabernet Sauvignon and Cabernet Franc was exceptional, something very special.
 

Our team found the balance of the wines exceptional. Good acidity, fruit and tannins, suggesting a vintage that will keep well. Giles Smith Walker in our London team described the tannins as “supple, soft and refined” and while he agrees the wines will keep he feels due to the nature of the tannins these wines will be approachable fairly quickly. On the Left Bank the wines were fabulous, with many properties using a higher than normal percentage of Cabernet Sauvignon in order to benefit from the characteristics of the vintage. The wines have tremendous power but elegance as well which makes the vintage so exciting. Top commune on the Left Bank? Tricky, they all did well. Derek felt Pauillac and St Julien were his picks, Giles felt Margaux excelled (when sometimes it does let itself down), and Graves and Pessac-Léognan didn’t disappoint (Veronique Sanders’ Haut Bailly was simply sublime).
 

For the very top wines, it is difficult to pick the best. We have heard some say Latour won the battle, but Derek felt Lafite-Rothschild pipped Latour. Encouragingly, none of the Firsts dropped behind, the quality was universally excellent. And the likes of Palmer, Léoville Lascases, Léoville Barton, Montrose, Lynch Bages, Pontet Canet, Cos d’Estournel…..we could go on and on….are exceptional too. By the end of the week we will have our notes and scores for specific Châteaux available. Pricing and timing are the next questions. The Bordelais were being characteristically cagey regarding prices. We feel the top wines will be priced at or around the 2005 levels which, while high, will still be ‘good value’. From an investment perspective, we feel these wines will offer an excellent potential (please see below). Timing wise, we would expect the first wines to be released towards the end of this month, with the top wines not being released until after Vinexpo in Hong Kong which is being held between 25th-27th May.

What to do next? There will be a lot of demand for these wines, and supply will be an issue. As we have suggested before, the Americans are back in the market for En Primeur (we await Robert Parker’s pronouncement on the vintage. He was tasting a couple of weeks ago and we would expect him to return at the end of the month for a second go at the wines) and the Asians will be buyers in this campaign for the first time in volume. It means we need to be quick to get stock when it becomes available. In order for us to do this, the more input we receive from those interested in buying, the better. To this end, please do let us know what you are potentially looking for in terms of specific names or even just quantity. Please do not hesitate to call us to discuss the vintage.

A final point is to return to the Vintage from an investment perspective. The top wines from the top vintages have historically performed well, and we believe 2009 will offer good gains on a 5-10 year view. People are inclined to focus on the very top wines as targets for investment (the First Growths, La Mission-Haut-Brion, Pétrus, Cheval Blanc, Ausone etc.). But as our recent research in the table below shows, picking the second tier wines in the top vintages is also worthwhile. These prices were taken at the end of February, and they have risen marginally since then, but this does illustrate the return fairly well. One thing to note, the current price is the market selling price, so if one held one of these wines you would be looking to sell at a 10-15% discount to the market price. One further point – don’t forget the cost of storage. It is roughly £10 per annum, so over ten years the return is actually £100 less. For those wines fetching thousands of pounds, the rental impact on the return is small, while for wines under £1,000 the effect is more material.
 

We would consider all the properties below as strong candidates for investment wines in the 2009 vintage. We have looked at the return from the last three top vintages, taking the initial price at release and the market price on 26th February 2010.